Biden's administration fears North Korea

Biden’s administration fears North Korea will create a new nuclear test.

lack of intelligence Inside North Korea is declining. US capability In determining Kim Jong Un’s intentions as hermit kingdom Fires out a large number of powerful missiles.According to the senior management.

recent test This has made administration officials increasingly concerned that Kim will oversee the seventh nuclear test in his country.Biden’s administration fears North Korea

So far, President Joe Biden has responded to the historic provocation by sending US aircraft carriers to the region United States and South Korea Conduct a live missile test. by myself andIn an urgent telephone call with Japan’s Prime Minister Biden pledged to coordinate “Long-term response” to the more battling North

White House officials declined to detail any analyzes or assessments that shed light on why the escalation in action was taken, citing the inability to discuss classified information publicly. But two senior US officials People familiar with the matter agree that the main problem in predicting authoritarian motives is the complete lack of resolute intelligence.

“We have a pretty good picture of North Korea’s conventional state and missile capabilities. Much more difficult is the element of will. Of course, consolidation is a bigger issue,” said Chris Johnstone, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. and former director of the National Security Council’s East Asia Region under Biden, said

“Because most of what North Korea does is driven by the leader himself. You really have to get into his head. And that’s a very difficult intellectual problem.”

North Korea has long been isolated and largely closed off from the rest of the world, a reality that has intensified in recent years due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not only conducive to economic and social progress. But it also provides an important window and data gathering opportunity for the US intelligence service and its allies.

That leaves the White House with no type of data that can help accurately predict when an experiment might occur, or help a deeper understanding of Kim’s thinking, while Biden works to adjust its approach that avoids the escalation.

John Kirby, National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator told CNN’s Christian Amanpur: “It was difficult to know what was in his mind. And how did he decide?” “Our ability to predict intelligence from Pyongyang is quite limited. Therefore, it is difficult to know what caused this. But what we do know is that he is still trying to improve the program. his ability to continue.”

intelligence community “Knows very well about his inner circle. Quite fair about the way the decision is made,” Johnstone said. “But in the end It’s really him And when the circle is very small – and they are not out of the country – it is quite a difficult target.”

The latest missile launch marks the 24th time North Korea has conducted a missile test this year. This is the highest annual record since Kim took office in 2011.

The sanctions imposed by the government in the past three years have been of little effect in stopping Kim’s march toward usable nuclear weapons. Even if they leave a deeply isolated country and many people are poor. in the same way Diplomacy has failed to make great strides in stopping a weapons program that North Korea says it will never abandon.

An attempt by the Biden government to engage directly with Pyongyang. – Delivery through various channels both directly and indirectly Suspended by the authorities While the White House is confident Message Seeking Diplomacyunconditionally “Anytime, Anywhere” was received by Kim, he had yet to reply.

“We remain prepared to engage in vigorous and ongoing negotiations,” one U.S. official said. “Unfortunately, DPRK did not respond to our expansion.”

Another underground nuclear test This could happen near the midterm elections in November. It will be a move that attracts the attention of US officials. It has been in operation for several months. starting in spring When intelligence shows new activity at one of the country’s nuclear plants. The timing of President Biden’s first visit to Asia

White House aides said they were ready to respond. including through the adjustment of the US military stance in the region and the deployment of strategic assets. But the test didn’t take place during Biden’s journey. It reinforces the limitations of US intelligence agencies in predicting when or why North Korea will test advanced weapons.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that every time people start speculating about what North Korea will or will not do. They tend to have confusing expectations one way or another.

U.S. officials and outside analysts estimate that the U.S. It’s unlikely to receive much warning about nuclear testing. US military and intelligence agencies Assess that North Korea may be ready to begin underground nuclear testing at any time. For the most part, from satellite imagery showing above-ground preparations at the Punggye-ri test site, it appears to be complete.

The country’s rainy season is over. open road to area What is unclear is whether North Korea has placed nuclear material in an underground tunnel at the site.

“This country is already dry. The testing grounds look great to my eyes, at this point it might actually be a political option for them,” said Jeffrey Lewis, weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “I think when they are both technical and political. We will receive all the warnings we will receive.”

Officials believe the missile and nuclear tests have a practical purpose. More than just sending messages to the US and regional partners This allows North Korea to further improve its system as it pursues its ultimate goal of nuclear-powered ballistic missiles. Can reach the mainland of the United States An even more powerful weapon test also boosted Kim’s height in North Korea.

“What we are concerned about is what happens in these launches – how far and whether it succeeds or fails – he learns and he can improve the missile capabilities in the future. That’s a concern for us,” Kirby said.

Lewis cautioned against reading too much about single-missile tests, he said. The main motivation for North Korea is technical development – “especially Short-range missiles I think they no longer test missiles. They are testing the crew.”

other analysts Massive missile tests are believed to be understood as a response to Kim’s domestic misery.

“North Korea is having a very difficult time during the coronavirus. Basically shutting down the country altogether. including China The food situation is not very good,” Johnstone said. “Outside enemies are part of what he uses to maintain his position.”

However, it is precisely to determine why North Korea conducts ballistic missile tests at any given time. It has proven a lasting challenge for the US administration. that stretched for decades For Biden and his senior national security aide Deciphering North Korea’s intentions while speeding up weapons testing has proven difficult. And management officials were frank that previous attempts to provide incentives for Pyongyang’s actions were subsequently proven wrong.

“North Koreans have a reason for what they do. And our history of understanding ahead of time is not always great,” said a U.S. official familiar with North Korean policy.

Biden and his team scoffed at the prospect of holding a high-level meeting with Kim similar to the three summits held by former President Donald Trump with authoritarian leaders. But they said the meeting between the two leaders would take place after extensive preparatory negotiations between officials of the two sides and was intended only for express purposes.

at the same time Biden also rejected the guidelines. Instead, it is the “strategic tolerance” adopted by former President Barack Obama, seeking a more gradual approach. North Korea abandoned part of the program in exchange for easing sanctions.

Biden administration officials quietly acknowledge that their North Korean policies are not expected to make progress in the difficult-to-maintain nuclear challenge. An administrative source said. But they took office as well. North Korea is expected to have no diplomatic contact soon. Due to the turbulent past few years with the United States Under Trump and the impact of COVID

Some officials are now beginning to consider how the Biden administration can address different foreign policy challenges in the second half of Biden’s agenda. The source said Although neither the president nor his senior aides stated their desire to make the issue a top priority.

“Our stance on diplomacy and negotiations has not changed,” said Wedant Patel, deputy spokesman for the US State Department. He said when asked if the Biden administration would consider reevaluating North Korea’s policy based on the latest missile test.

If there are any indications in Pyongyang’s recent provocations and the threat of a possible nuclear test. Johnstone said general threats have helped the United States. Smoother past conflicting relations between Japan and South Korea And it could accelerate the debate in Japan about doubling defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, he said.

When asked what policies the Biden administration had in place at its disposal to try to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. Lewis then summed up: “None. “Biden’s administration fears North Korea

“When North Korea has no nuclear weapons There are interesting options to either attract or pressure them not to build it,” Lewis said. It is a completely different game.”

while the United States has moved in what one official called It has been “clear and calibrated” with key regional partners over the past several days. One key player that remains largely invisible is China.

When tensions between the US with China has been rising in recent months. Critical communication between key US officials With their Chinese counterparts, most of them are still on the ice. According to several senior US officials, if China is absent while US officials Fight against Kim’s will causing sudden challenges especially Because of the country’s role as the central dialogue between the United States and its allies and North Korea.

Sullivan addressed the issue directly during a four-and-a-half-hour meeting with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi last June. officials said He pointed to North Korea as the main area where countries can cooperate Even in the midst of a stressful relationship

Sullivan “clearly made it clear that we believe this is an area where the US And China should be able to work together,” said a senior official. Biden’s administration fears North Korea

but this week China has shown no desire to work with the United States. in controlling North Korean provocations. Chinese representatives at the United Nations have launched the latest missile as a result of the US aggression. in the region during the UN Security Council meeting

White House officials believe the timing of the seventh nuclear test may have been dictated by political ruse in China. Several officials noted that they were closely watching the period immediately after the Communist Party meeting ended later this month.

One official noted that it is unlikely that Kim will try to create a moment of major political crisis as Chinese President Xi Jinping advances to his third term. Biden’s administration fears North Korea

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